Monday, August 5
Joe Pitts
No American president or vice president has hailed from the state of Arizona. It ain’t for lack of trying.
In 1964, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater famously went head-to-head with President Lyndon B. Johnson. While his run is credited with reigniting America’s conservative movement and paving the way for Ronald Reagan’s political revolution, his presidential aspirations went down in flames. He rose to become one of the most powerful men in Washington, but the White House eluded him.
Congressman Mo Udall, who represented Arizona in Congress from 1961 through 1991, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976. For a time, he was considered the frontrunner, but Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter eventually broke out ahead of the pack.
Governor Bruce Babbitt, in a long forgotten chapter of the Copper State’s political history, ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 1988. He never broke through and bowed out after the first set of primaries.
Senator John McCain, who succeeded Goldwater in the Senate, first ran for president as an insurgent candidate in 2000. After a hard fought primary campaign, he conceded to Texas Governor George W. Bush. McCain, of course, made a run for it again in 2008—losing to Senator Barack Obama. McCain remained a major power broker in Washington, but like Goldwater, never reached the White House.
Now, Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, is seriously considering an Arizonan to be her party’s vice presidential nominee: Senator Mark Kelly. She would be wise to choose him. He represents a swing state that is also a border state, boosting her prospects in a state trending toward Trump, and potentially recovering her disastrous image as “border czar.” His tenure in the Senate has been nothing special, but it has been mostly uncontroversial. Arizona’s senior senator, Kyrsten Sinema casts a long shadow —and in Kelly’s case, that’s advantageous.
Besides his political bona fides, he’s married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, a gun safety advocate who miraculously survived a gruesome act of political violence. Prior to his service in the Senate, Kelly flew 39 combat missions during Operation Desert Storm. He logged 54 days in space as an astronaut, piloting and commanding multiple Space Shuttle missions to the International Space Station. Political consultants dream of such resumes.
What is most interesting about Harris’ consideration of Kelly, however, is Arizona’s rising political and economic clout. Once regarded primarily as a Mecca for National Park junkies and retirees, the state plays an increasingly prominent role in American life.
Most obviously, Arizona’s unique partisan distribution makes it relevant to presidential aspirants. A swing state home to seniors, suburban moms, and a growing young working population, its electoral votes are within reach for both parties. The state shifted out of the ruby red category during the mid-2010s, with Trump beating Clinton by only 3.6% in 2016, and Biden beating Trump by a mere .3% in 2020. Prior to 2020, no Democratic presidential nominee had won Arizona since 1948, except for Bill Clinton in 1996. Statewide elected officials are a hodge podge of Republicans and Democrats; Republicans control either house of the legislature by a single seat. Registered voters are split in thirds, with 35% registered as Republican, 29% as Democrat, and 33% with neither party. We are a true swing state. As Landon Wall, one of Arizona’s foremost political data analysts, has convincingly argued, escalating suburbanization has helped fuel this shift to the center.
Beyond this basic fact, the Grand Canyon State is becoming an economic heavyweight. In the depths of the Great Recession, our state government begged Wall Street for credit to keep the lights on. Economic studies indicate that the economic crisis hit Arizona harder than most states, mostly because of our large housing market. We have come a long way since then. Recognizing that the state’s lack of economic diversification made it unnecessarily susceptible to downturn, Governors Jan Brewer and Doug Ducey, business leaders, and pro-growth legislators worked together to improve economic resiliency and strength. The results have been extraordinary, even if Arizonans would be the first to tell you that there is plenty of work left to do.
Our recovery was so remarkable that it has been dubbed the “Arizona Miracle.” As James K Glassman wrote in National Affairs in 2022:
According to an annual survey of 700 CEOs by Chief Executive magazine, Arizona now ranks fourth among the best states for business, moving up six spots in a single year. The labor consultancy EMSI rated Phoenix first in talent attraction for the second year in a row. As education and job training in the state have improved, Arizona's poverty rate has dropped from 18.2% to 14.1%—the fifth-fastest decline among the states. This accomplishment is all the more remarkable given that 29% of Arizona residents are either immigrants or the children of at least one immigrant parent.
New enterprises are sprouting up across the state, including multibillion dollar flagship chip factories managed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Intel. The explosion of advanced manufacturing in-particular has led some to dub the Sonoran Desert the “Silicon Desert,” a land of opportunity for swashbuckling entrepreneurs and investors interested in building things, unburdened by excessive regulation. Arizona is now the number one state in the nation for manufacturing job growth.
Our economic expansion has precipitated population growth: Phoenix is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation. Arizona is now the 14th most populous state in the United States—in 1950, we were 37th. People are voting with their feet.
Ross Douthat and others have said that the future of American dynamism is out West and within the Sun Belt. I’ll go one step further: its nucleus is in the great state of Arizona.
If Harris chooses Kelly, and if they win in November—two big “if”s—Arizona’s rise to prominence will only accelerate.
First, Kelly would employ and promote Arizonans at the national level, building the bench in our nation’s capital. The senator is well connected to Arizona’s business community, which has made an effort to straddle the state’s raucous political scene, especially with the ascension of big business-skeptical Republicans like Kari Lake and Blake Masters. His donors include many prominent Republicans and ex-Republicans, many of whom still give significant amounts to Republican candidates.
The consultants, staffers, donors, and business leaders who would benefit from a Kelly vice presidency would not all be hardline Democrats. Many would have friends (and even former clients and employers) on either side of the aisle. A Kelly vice presidency would not only strengthen Arizona Democrats’ D.C. connections, but Arizona’s D.C. footprint. It could very well serve as a beachhead for Arizona talent to further establish itself in the national arena. That said, Arizona Democratic operatives, donors, and politicos would benefit first and foremost; Arizona Republicans would benefit only residually, at least at first.
A Vice President Mark Kelly would also mean that issues uniquely facing Arizona would be pushed closer to the front of the national political discourse. Hopefully, that would mean heightened national focus on border security, immigration, water security, housing development, advanced manufacturing, and healthcare. Of course, Kelly’s angle on these issues would differ from that of conservatives.
Our state has a knack for mavericks and underdogs. It’s in our blood: our pioneer ancestors left their lives behind to make a new life for themselves in the desert; our native ancestors made a home for themselves in a most inhospitable climate, even building the largest canal system in the Americas pre-1492. Phoenix, a dusty valley with a few thousand inhabitants in the early 1870s, is now a burgeoning global metropolis. A land once known mostly for road trips and retirement is now ground zero for American dynamism, growth, and opportunity.
Our state is an increasingly important component of our nation’s economic and political life, and we believe that we’ve been counted out for far too long. In short, we have a chip on our shoulder. Warren Buffet famously tells investors to “never bet against America.” Most Arizonans believe that this adage can also be applied to our great state: “Never bet against Arizona.”
It’s not unlikely that a Harris-Kelly ticket falters in November, and conservatives (like myself) should not cheer on the Democratic ticket solely because it would promote Arizona’s rise to prominence, especially when so many other issues are at stake. But at the very least, Harris’ consideration of Kelly is a harbinger of Arizona’s growing prestige. A star is rising in the western United States, and we’ve just barely glimpsed dawn.
Joe Pitts is a public policy professional currently working in Washington, D.C. He is a native Arizonan, and serves as CEO of the Western Tribune.
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