November 21, 2024
by Philip Wallach
By the standards of 21st century American politics, the 2024 election produced a dramatic result for both the presidency, where 80 electoral votes swung to give Donald Trump his second victory, and the Senate, where Republicans flipped four seats and retook the majority.
And yet the composition of the House of Representatives went from 220-212 before the election to 221-214 after (assuming John Duarte holds on and Michelle Steel loses in pending California races). Both parties made a few hard-fought gains, offsetting each other. Mostly, though, House incumbents showed remarkable resilience in a supposedly anti-incumbent environment. We already knew that gerrymandering and increasingly expensive House contests reduced the number of seats in play. But 2024 shows how rigidly locked into our current tight split we are, at least until a thorough realignment arrives.
Let’s briefly tour the results in competitive districts. First, filling vacancies netted Democrats one seat: they gained in New Jersey and Texas, while Republicans filled one in Wisconsin.
Off-cycle redistricting netted Republicans one seat: they gained three in North Carolina and lost one each in Alabama and Louisiana.
In the Northeast, we saw a good bit of action. Although Donald Trump made massive gains in most parts of New York City, House seats there remain comfortably in Democrats’ control (with the exception of Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, now a safe red seat for Nicole Malliotakis). In Long Island and upstate, Republicans lost three House seats they had picked up with a strong showing in 2022. Freshman representatives Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams all lost to strong Democratic challengers (members-elect Laura Gillen, Josh Riley, and John Mannion). Trump’s big gains in New Jersey helped Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., hold onto his seat, and made one contest unexpectedly close (NJ-09, formerly held by the late Rep. Bill Pascrell, now to be occupied by Nellie Pou), but no seats changed hands.
In nearby eastern Pennsylvania, Republicans did gain ground. Two young challengers, Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan, knocked off Democratic incumbents Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright, who had each held down purple districts for several cycles. Former Freedom Caucus chair Scott Perry, who faced a strong challenger, narrowly held onto his seat.
In Connecticut, Rep. Jahana Hayes won her rematch against appealing challenger George Logan more comfortably than in 2022. In New Hampshire, Democrats kept control of both House seats without much difficulty. In a bruising and expensive contest with racecar driver Austin Theriault, Rep. Jared Golden did just enough to hang on to his largely rural Maine district. In Maryland’s westernmost district, Democrats eked out a win to hold an open seat.
Overall: Democrats flipped three, Republicans two, so Democrats netted one seat.
In the South, Republicans cemented their advantage—but neither side flipped a single seat (apart from the redistricting mentioned above). Unlike in New York, where the GOP disgorged most of its 2022 gains, in Florida the party convincingly held every seat. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, expected to have a nailbiter, won by almost 40,000 votes. In Texas, Republicans missed an opportunity by failing to knock off Rep. Henry Cuellar, currently under indictment, as challenger Jay Furman’s excitedly MAGA campaign missed the mark. They also failed to take the Virginia seat vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, which was a top target. Eugene Vindman, known for his (and his twin brother’s) involvement in Trump’s first impeachment, held the seat for Democrats. On the other hand, Republican Jen Kiggans of Virginia Beach outraised and outspent her challenger on the way to a four-point win. In North Carolina, Republicans hoped to get a fourth seat from their redistricting, but Rep. Don Davis held his now-purple seat.
Overall: no seats flipped, push.
In the Midwest, the swing toward Trump was somewhat less dramatic, and all Democratic incumbents who sought reelection held their seats, including Ohio representatives Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, both of whose districts lean toward Trump. Republicans gained just one open seat as young veteran Tom Barrett took the central Michigan seat vacated by Senator-elect Elissa Slotkin. Notwithstanding pollsters’ and handicappers’ predictions they would fall, vulnerable GOP incumbents from the region also managed to hang on, including Iowa’s Marionette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, Michigan’s John James, and Nebraska’s Don Bacon. In Wisconsin, the sharp-elbowed former Navy Seal Derrick Van Orden held off a serious challenge.
Overall, Republicans flipped one seat.
The House would have to be won in the West, with the decisive races not finally called until more than a week after election day because of the region’s permissive mail-in voting rules. Again, incumbent victories were the rule. In Nevada, which Trump flipped to his column in the presidential contest, all three Democratic incumbents held their seats (Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford, along with Senator Jacky Rosen). Arizona also switched its presidential vote from 2020 and also saw the incumbent party hold every House seat. Incumbents mostly prevailed in slow-counting California, too, including Democrats Josh Harder, Mike Levin, and Jim Costa (whose San Joaquin Valley contest was closer than expected), and Republicans David Valadao, Young Kim, Ken Calvert, and John Duarte (the last by the skin of his teeth). Democrat Dave Min also retained Rep. Katie Porter’s seat in a down-to-the-wire contest in Orange County.
The West did see some flips, including two in California. North of Los Angeles, Democrat George Whitesides knocked off Rep. Mike Garcia. And in the southeastern portion of the city, Derek Tran, the child of Vietnamese refugees, seems to have defeated Rep. Michelle Steel by a few dozen votes, though a recount is inevitable. In Oregon, Democrat Janelle Bynum beat freshman GOP incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer, retaking a seat that Democrats gave away in 2022 after Rep. Kurt Schrader lost his primary to a progressive activist.
Meanwhile, Republicans countered with two flips of their own. In Colorado’s Eighth district, created in 2022 to be a swing seat, two millennial Latinos with impressive records faced off. Veteran and former police officer Gabe Evans knocked off incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a pediatrician. And in Alaska, Republicans put the memory of Sarah Palin’s tumultuous 2022 run behind them as Mark Begich defeated Mary Peltola.
Overall: Democrats flipped three, Republicans flipped two, Democrats netted one.
What was an 8-seat margin for Republicans will soon become a 7-seat margin.
As Sean Trende has pointed out, the stasis is largely explained by the fact that the electorate in 2024 was not so different from the electorate in 2022. Republicans’ major gains (largely inspired by inflation) had already taken place in the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency, which is what allowed them to win the majority in the midterm. This cycle, the GOP held on to that progress, allowing it to take the White House and, because of a very favorable map, the Senate. But the party did not extend its gains in the most competitive regions, and so got no expansion of its majority in the House.
Still, even with that frame in mind, incumbents overperformed. Democrats’ superior fundraising clearly allowed them to hang on to a few seats that strong challengers otherwise may have taken. For example, in California’s 9th district centered on Stockton, incumbent Democrat Josh Harder raised nearly $5 million. His opponent, Kevin Lincoln, is a Marine corps veteran and the current mayor of Stockton. He presented a very appealing vision of what the GOP could be. But he raised a bit less than $2 million, supplemented by $900,000 more from the National Republican Congressional Committee. Harder won by about 9,000 votes.
Republicans will have a razor-thin margin in the House. It will get even smaller because of Trump’s nominations of Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz (who will presumably take their seats in the new Congress and then resign when confirmed) and Matt Gaetz (who has already resigned his seat). And yet Speaker Mike Johnson has been talking about Republicans’ mandate. It is possible that Republicans can hang together to pass party-line votes; certainly, with the need for a tax bill in 2025 and the possibility of using budget reconciliation in the Republican-controlled Senate, they will try. But we should remember that, for most of the 118th Congress, House Republicans could not count on party unity, even for procedural matters. Instead, the body was limited to passing those measures that could earn the support of more than two-thirds of the chamber (290 votes), and thus move under the stripped-down procedure known as “suspension of the rules.” With a margin just as narrow in the 119th, Republicans will either need to shake up the way the House does its business—or expect more of the same.
Philip Wallach is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.